If the COVID vaccines worked to reduce risk of death, we’d expect that by March 2022, the slope of the cumulative deaths for COVID waves would flatten. So in the graph above, we’d have expected the red line to slope DOWN.
It slopes up.
Looks like the vaccines didn’t work as expected. Whoops.
Process
I computed the slope of the cumulative deaths for each country for each COVID wave and plotted a dot representing the slope (y axis) and the middle of the COVID wave (x axis).
As you can see from the plot above, the slope got worse over time instead of dramatically better.
We can plot the top 25 most vaccinated countries:
We can plot the 25 least vaccinated countries:
Slope fit examples
Here are some examples of the slope fit algorithm for Czech Republic and US. We did this for every country with COVID death data in OWID.
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