[IMG alt="The CEO confidence economy outlook 2026 survey shows a sharp swing from optimism to pessimism in one quarter as layoff plans rise and hiring slows.
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Corporate America’s outlook on the U.S. economy has shifted sharply from optimism to alarm in the span of a single quarter, with a new survey showing CEO confidence has fallen back into negative territory as inflation, geopolitical risk, and weakening business conditions pile up.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, conducted in collaboration with The Business Council, surveyed 141 CEOs and found the overall score dropped to 47 in the second quarter of 2026, down from 59 in the first quarter.
Any reading below 50 signals that negative outlooks outnumber positive ones.
The speed and scale of the reversal is striking.
Only 15% of CEOs said the economy is better now than it was six months ago, compared to 39% who felt that way in the first quarter. Meanwhile, 47% said conditions have gotten worse, up sharply from just 8% in the prior quarter.
Looking ahead, 40% of respondents said they expect economic conditions to deteriorate further over the next six months. Just one quarter ago, only 13% held that view.
Conference Board chief economist Dana M. Peterson described the quarter’s results as a reversal of the optimism surge that had characterized the first quarter.
“CEOs reported that the economy is materially worse now than it was six months ago and expected economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months,” Peterson said.
The deterioration in CEO confidence is already translating into changes in hiring and workforce planning.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect to reduce their workforce over the next six months, now outpacing the 28% who plan to expand hiring. That inversion is a meaningful signal, as workforce cuts typically lag the decline in business confidence by several months.
Planned wage increases are also losing momentum, with most CEOs concentrating expected raises in the 3% to 4% range, down from the more aggressive increases seen during the post-pandemic labor market surge. Additionally, 53% of respondents reported experiencing hiring difficulties in some areas, suggesting the labor market is softening unevenly across sectors.
Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council, described the current environment as a “low-hire, low-fire” economy in which the share of CEOs planning to increase headcount has edged down while those anticipating cuts have risen.
When CEOs were asked to rank their top business risks, the survey found a notable shift in the landscape of concerns.
Cyber risks topped the list, with nearly two-thirds of executives ranking it as a primary concern in the second quarter. Geopolitical risk and uncertainty around artificial intelligence and new technology also remained near the top.
Significantly, risks tied to supply chains and energy costs rose in both importance and intensity compared to the first quarter, reflecting the direct impact of the Iran war’s disruption of global commodity markets.
The survey results align with a broader set of economic indicators that have been trending in the wrong direction.
The final reading for fourth-quarter GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 0.5%, below economist expectations of 0.7%.
While the full year 2025 showed a solid 2.1% expansion, analysts say the Middle East conflict has added new and significant headwinds heading into the second half of 2026.
EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said the outlook for 2026 appears even less favorable than last year, with higher inflation, weaker real disposable income growth, and tighter financial conditions all weighing on economic momentum.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, perhaps the most closely watched voice in American corporate finance, described himself as “cautiously pessimistic” about the economy even as markets have been hitting record highs.
He cited inflation risks and the disconnect between buoyant equity valuations and the underlying economic pressures facing businesses and consumers as key sources of concern.
The gap between a stock market trading near all-time highs and a corporate leadership class growing increasingly worried about the next six months reflects the same divergence that strategists have been flagging for weeks, and the CEO confidence data suggests the business community is not expecting that gap to close in an encouraging direction.
The post Top CEOs Brace for Economic Downturn as Confidence Collapses in Second Quarter appeared first on .
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Corporate America’s outlook on the U.S. economy has shifted sharply from optimism to alarm in the span of a single quarter, with a new survey showing CEO confidence has fallen back into negative territory as inflation, geopolitical risk, and weakening business conditions pile up.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, conducted in collaboration with The Business Council, surveyed 141 CEOs and found the overall score dropped to 47 in the second quarter of 2026, down from 59 in the first quarter.
Any reading below 50 signals that negative outlooks outnumber positive ones.
How Fast the Mood Has Shifted
The speed and scale of the reversal is striking.
Only 15% of CEOs said the economy is better now than it was six months ago, compared to 39% who felt that way in the first quarter. Meanwhile, 47% said conditions have gotten worse, up sharply from just 8% in the prior quarter.
Looking ahead, 40% of respondents said they expect economic conditions to deteriorate further over the next six months. Just one quarter ago, only 13% held that view.
Conference Board chief economist Dana M. Peterson described the quarter’s results as a reversal of the optimism surge that had characterized the first quarter.
“CEOs reported that the economy is materially worse now than it was six months ago and expected economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months,” Peterson said.
Workforce Reductions Are Now More Likely Than Hiring Expansion
The deterioration in CEO confidence is already translating into changes in hiring and workforce planning.
Thirty-one percent of respondents said they expect to reduce their workforce over the next six months, now outpacing the 28% who plan to expand hiring. That inversion is a meaningful signal, as workforce cuts typically lag the decline in business confidence by several months.
Planned wage increases are also losing momentum, with most CEOs concentrating expected raises in the 3% to 4% range, down from the more aggressive increases seen during the post-pandemic labor market surge. Additionally, 53% of respondents reported experiencing hiring difficulties in some areas, suggesting the labor market is softening unevenly across sectors.
Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council, described the current environment as a “low-hire, low-fire” economy in which the share of CEOs planning to increase headcount has edged down while those anticipating cuts have risen.
Supply Chain and Energy Risks Are Rising
When CEOs were asked to rank their top business risks, the survey found a notable shift in the landscape of concerns.
Cyber risks topped the list, with nearly two-thirds of executives ranking it as a primary concern in the second quarter. Geopolitical risk and uncertainty around artificial intelligence and new technology also remained near the top.
Significantly, risks tied to supply chains and energy costs rose in both importance and intensity compared to the first quarter, reflecting the direct impact of the Iran war’s disruption of global commodity markets.
The Economic Backdrop Is Getting Harder to Ignore
The survey results align with a broader set of economic indicators that have been trending in the wrong direction.
The final reading for fourth-quarter GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 0.5%, below economist expectations of 0.7%.
While the full year 2025 showed a solid 2.1% expansion, analysts say the Middle East conflict has added new and significant headwinds heading into the second half of 2026.
EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said the outlook for 2026 appears even less favorable than last year, with higher inflation, weaker real disposable income growth, and tighter financial conditions all weighing on economic momentum.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, perhaps the most closely watched voice in American corporate finance, described himself as “cautiously pessimistic” about the economy even as markets have been hitting record highs.
He cited inflation risks and the disconnect between buoyant equity valuations and the underlying economic pressures facing businesses and consumers as key sources of concern.
The gap between a stock market trading near all-time highs and a corporate leadership class growing increasingly worried about the next six months reflects the same divergence that strategists have been flagging for weeks, and the CEO confidence data suggests the business community is not expecting that gap to close in an encouraging direction.
The post Top CEOs Brace for Economic Downturn as Confidence Collapses in Second Quarter appeared first on .
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