[IMG alt="Oil prices Iran ceasefire life support warning from Trump sends Brent above $108 as the Hormuz stays closed and global inventories hit critical levels.
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Oil prices pushed sharply higher as the ceasefire between the United States and Iran showed renewed signs of strain, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed to commercial traffic and global oil inventories racing toward critically low levels.
Brent crude climbed more than 8% for the week, trading above $109 per barrel by Friday, while West Texas Intermediate held near $105. Earlier in the week, Brent had risen 3.6% to just under $108 per barrel as tensions flared across the Gulf region.
President Donald Trump set the tone for the week’s trading when he told reporters that the Iranian response his administration received to a proposed peace framework was “garbage.”
Trump later described the ceasefire as being on “massive life support,” signaling deep frustration with the pace of negotiations and Iran’s stated conditions for returning to the table.
Iran’s demands have included lifting the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a degree of ongoing control over traffic through the waterway. Washington has rejected the terms, leaving both sides at an impasse with little visible progress.
Beyond the diplomatic stalemate, new military incidents added to market anxiety during the week.
Kuwait said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a skirmish against an island within Kuwaiti territory, which Kuwaiti officials described as a “flagrant violation of sovereignty.” The UAE, which has absorbed significant Iranian missile and drone strikes throughout the conflict, was separately reported to have been conducting retaliatory strikes against Iran without publicly disclosing those actions.
The U.S. also said it struck Iranian targets at the end of the prior week after Tehran fired on American warships transiting the strait.
The physical consequences of the Hormuz closure are becoming increasingly severe, with analysts warning that the global oil supply buffer built up before the war is rapidly approaching exhaustion.
JPMorgan analysts said global oil inventories held in OECD countries are on track to reach operational stress levels by early June and could hit minimum operational thresholds, the levels below which refineries, pipelines, and storage infrastructure cannot function, by September.
Global oil demand fell by 2.8 million barrels per day in March and by 4.3 million barrels per day in April, with JPMorgan projecting demand-driven losses of 5.6 million barrels per day in May as higher prices and supply shortages force consumption lower. Governments across Southeast Asia have implemented shortened workweeks and fuel rationing, while European airlines have begun cutting noncritical regional routes.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the world is losing 100 million barrels of oil supply for every day the war continues.
Even if the strait reopened immediately, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that restarting oil fields, repairing refineries, and repositioning tanker fleets would mean the market is on track to lose another billion barrels of supply over the remainder of 2026.
Maritime and energy analysts say the strait’s status has evolved beyond a simple binary of open or closed into something far more complex and politically managed.
Arsenio Longo, founder of maritime risk intelligence firm HUAX, said that ten weeks into the crisis, what has replaced the open-or-closed framework is “a layered access system, in which passage still exists but under conditions that are increasingly political, selective, and operationally managed.”
Only a trickle of tankers have successfully exited the Persian Gulf since the conflict began, with sanctioned, falsely flagged, and high-risk vessels accounting for most of the limited transit activity.
The week also saw President Trump meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing, where the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz were among the topics discussed.
Trump said Xi expressed interest in purchasing more American oil, a potential signal that Beijing may be looking for alternatives to Iranian supply as the conflict and U.S. blockade complicate its energy procurement. However, China’s official readout of the meeting did not include energy among the topics confirmed.
The U.S. government released 53.3 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a broader coordinated effort with the International Energy Agency to deploy 172 million barrels in total to ease supply pressure.
Despite the release, gasoline prices nationally averaged $4.50 per gallon, with midterm elections approaching and affordability emerging as a dominant issue for voters.
The IEA said this week that even if hostilities end next month, global oil markets will remain “severely undersupplied” until October, underscoring just how deep and lasting the damage from the Hormuz closure has become.
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Oil prices pushed sharply higher as the ceasefire between the United States and Iran showed renewed signs of strain, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed to commercial traffic and global oil inventories racing toward critically low levels.
Brent crude climbed more than 8% for the week, trading above $109 per barrel by Friday, while West Texas Intermediate held near $105. Earlier in the week, Brent had risen 3.6% to just under $108 per barrel as tensions flared across the Gulf region.
Trump Says Ceasefire Is on Massive Life Support
President Donald Trump set the tone for the week’s trading when he told reporters that the Iranian response his administration received to a proposed peace framework was “garbage.”
Trump later described the ceasefire as being on “massive life support,” signaling deep frustration with the pace of negotiations and Iran’s stated conditions for returning to the table.
Iran’s demands have included lifting the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a degree of ongoing control over traffic through the waterway. Washington has rejected the terms, leaving both sides at an impasse with little visible progress.
Fresh Military Incidents Rattle Markets
Beyond the diplomatic stalemate, new military incidents added to market anxiety during the week.
Kuwait said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a skirmish against an island within Kuwaiti territory, which Kuwaiti officials described as a “flagrant violation of sovereignty.” The UAE, which has absorbed significant Iranian missile and drone strikes throughout the conflict, was separately reported to have been conducting retaliatory strikes against Iran without publicly disclosing those actions.
The U.S. also said it struck Iranian targets at the end of the prior week after Tehran fired on American warships transiting the strait.
Inventories Are Running Out Faster Than Expected
The physical consequences of the Hormuz closure are becoming increasingly severe, with analysts warning that the global oil supply buffer built up before the war is rapidly approaching exhaustion.
JPMorgan analysts said global oil inventories held in OECD countries are on track to reach operational stress levels by early June and could hit minimum operational thresholds, the levels below which refineries, pipelines, and storage infrastructure cannot function, by September.
Global oil demand fell by 2.8 million barrels per day in March and by 4.3 million barrels per day in April, with JPMorgan projecting demand-driven losses of 5.6 million barrels per day in May as higher prices and supply shortages force consumption lower. Governments across Southeast Asia have implemented shortened workweeks and fuel rationing, while European airlines have begun cutting noncritical regional routes.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the world is losing 100 million barrels of oil supply for every day the war continues.
Even if the strait reopened immediately, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that restarting oil fields, repairing refineries, and repositioning tanker fleets would mean the market is on track to lose another billion barrels of supply over the remainder of 2026.
A Layered Access System, Not a Simple Open or Closed Question
Maritime and energy analysts say the strait’s status has evolved beyond a simple binary of open or closed into something far more complex and politically managed.
Arsenio Longo, founder of maritime risk intelligence firm HUAX, said that ten weeks into the crisis, what has replaced the open-or-closed framework is “a layered access system, in which passage still exists but under conditions that are increasingly political, selective, and operationally managed.”
Only a trickle of tankers have successfully exited the Persian Gulf since the conflict began, with sanctioned, falsely flagged, and high-risk vessels accounting for most of the limited transit activity.
Trump-Xi Summit Adds a Diplomatic Dimension
The week also saw President Trump meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing, where the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz were among the topics discussed.
Trump said Xi expressed interest in purchasing more American oil, a potential signal that Beijing may be looking for alternatives to Iranian supply as the conflict and U.S. blockade complicate its energy procurement. However, China’s official readout of the meeting did not include energy among the topics confirmed.
Strategic Reserves Released as Pump Prices Climb
The U.S. government released 53.3 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a broader coordinated effort with the International Energy Agency to deploy 172 million barrels in total to ease supply pressure.
Despite the release, gasoline prices nationally averaged $4.50 per gallon, with midterm elections approaching and affordability emerging as a dominant issue for voters.
The IEA said this week that even if hostilities end next month, global oil markets will remain “severely undersupplied” until October, underscoring just how deep and lasting the damage from the Hormuz closure has become.
The post Oil Climbs as Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Is ‘On Life Support’ and Hormuz Stays Closed appeared first on .
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