[IMG alt="The Brent oil price monthly loss Iran deal 2026 hopes drove crude down 19% in May, its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic shutdown in March 2020.
"]https://firstpatriotnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/image-5-1024x576.png[/IMG]
International oil prices recorded their worst monthly performance since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as traders increasingly priced in a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore global energy supply.
Brent crude fell more than 19% in May, its steepest single-month decline since March 2020 when pandemic lockdowns collapsed energy demand worldwide. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed nearly 17% over the same period, its worst monthly performance since April 2025.
The primary force behind the monthly decline was growing investor confidence that the United States and Iran are moving toward a deal that would end the war and reopen the strait.
Oil prices fell further on Friday after Trump said he would convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room to make a final determination about a potential agreement with Iran. WTI closed down 1.73% at $87.36 per barrel while Brent settled 1.77% lower at $92.05 per barrel.
U.S. officials told CNBC that negotiators have hammered out a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin formal talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump has not yet signed off on the agreement, officials said, but the existence of a draft framework represents the most concrete diplomatic progress since the war began in late February.
Despite the optimism in oil markets, Trump outlined a series of conditions on Friday that Iran has consistently refused to accept in prior rounds of negotiations.
Trump said Iran must formally agree it will never develop a nuclear weapon, must immediately open the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted two-way traffic without tolls, and must remove any remaining mines in the waterway.
He also demanded that Iran allow the United States to locate and destroy its stockpile of enriched uranium buried under rubble from last year’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities.
Each of those conditions touches on a red line Tehran has defended throughout the conflict. Iran has refused to surrender its enriched uranium, insisted on retaining some degree of control over the strait, and rejected American demands on its nuclear program as violations of its sovereignty.
The existence of a draft 60-day MOU represents a meaningful step forward even if the final terms remain contested.
The framework was first reported by Axios and subsequently confirmed by U.S. officials who spoke to CNBC.
It would extend the current ceasefire and create a structured window for negotiations on the nuclear issue, providing both sides with a defined period to reach a more permanent arrangement without the immediate threat of resumed military operations.
Trump’s sign-off is still required, and his public comments on Friday reiterating demands that Iran has previously rejected suggest the path to a finalized agreement remains uncertain.
The scale of oil’s monthly decline reflects just how dramatically market sentiment has shifted since the peak of the supply crisis.
At the height of the conflict, Brent crude briefly topped $110 per barrel as analysts warned of a potentially catastrophic supply shortage.
The nearly 20% monthly decline suggests markets are now assigning a meaningful probability to a scenario in which the strait reopens, supply begins to recover, and the extraordinary risk premium built into energy prices over the past three months begins to deflate.
However, analysts caution that the gap between a ceasefire extension and a durable resolution of the nuclear and Hormuz questions is still significant.
Trump’s stated demands and Iran’s publicly stated positions remain far apart on the issues that matter most, meaning the current wave of optimism could be premature if talks collapse once again.
The post Brent Oil Posts Biggest Monthly Loss in Six Years as Markets Count on a US-Iran Deal appeared first on .
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"]https://firstpatriotnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/image-5-1024x576.png[/IMG]
International oil prices recorded their worst monthly performance since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic as traders increasingly priced in a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore global energy supply.
Brent crude fell more than 19% in May, its steepest single-month decline since March 2020 when pandemic lockdowns collapsed energy demand worldwide. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed nearly 17% over the same period, its worst monthly performance since April 2025.
What Drove the Sell-Off
The primary force behind the monthly decline was growing investor confidence that the United States and Iran are moving toward a deal that would end the war and reopen the strait.
Oil prices fell further on Friday after Trump said he would convene a meeting in the White House Situation Room to make a final determination about a potential agreement with Iran. WTI closed down 1.73% at $87.36 per barrel while Brent settled 1.77% lower at $92.05 per barrel.
U.S. officials told CNBC that negotiators have hammered out a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin formal talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump has not yet signed off on the agreement, officials said, but the existence of a draft framework represents the most concrete diplomatic progress since the war began in late February.
Trump Lays Out Demands Iran Has Rejected Before
Despite the optimism in oil markets, Trump outlined a series of conditions on Friday that Iran has consistently refused to accept in prior rounds of negotiations.
Trump said Iran must formally agree it will never develop a nuclear weapon, must immediately open the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted two-way traffic without tolls, and must remove any remaining mines in the waterway.
He also demanded that Iran allow the United States to locate and destroy its stockpile of enriched uranium buried under rubble from last year’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities.
Each of those conditions touches on a red line Tehran has defended throughout the conflict. Iran has refused to surrender its enriched uranium, insisted on retaining some degree of control over the strait, and rejected American demands on its nuclear program as violations of its sovereignty.
A Deal Framework Exists but Remains Unsigned
The existence of a draft 60-day MOU represents a meaningful step forward even if the final terms remain contested.
The framework was first reported by Axios and subsequently confirmed by U.S. officials who spoke to CNBC.
It would extend the current ceasefire and create a structured window for negotiations on the nuclear issue, providing both sides with a defined period to reach a more permanent arrangement without the immediate threat of resumed military operations.
Trump’s sign-off is still required, and his public comments on Friday reiterating demands that Iran has previously rejected suggest the path to a finalized agreement remains uncertain.
Markets Are Betting on a Resolution, With Caveats
The scale of oil’s monthly decline reflects just how dramatically market sentiment has shifted since the peak of the supply crisis.
At the height of the conflict, Brent crude briefly topped $110 per barrel as analysts warned of a potentially catastrophic supply shortage.
The nearly 20% monthly decline suggests markets are now assigning a meaningful probability to a scenario in which the strait reopens, supply begins to recover, and the extraordinary risk premium built into energy prices over the past three months begins to deflate.
However, analysts caution that the gap between a ceasefire extension and a durable resolution of the nuclear and Hormuz questions is still significant.
Trump’s stated demands and Iran’s publicly stated positions remain far apart on the issues that matter most, meaning the current wave of optimism could be premature if talks collapse once again.
The post Brent Oil Posts Biggest Monthly Loss in Six Years as Markets Count on a US-Iran Deal appeared first on .
Continue reading...